PSX Talk

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  • جو شخص بہانہ بنانے میں بہت اچھا ہو ، وہ کسی اور کام میں اچھا نہیں ہو سکتا
  • پیسہ بدترین آقا ہے، مگر بہترین غلام بھی ہے
  • کسی فرد یا قوم کو برباد کرنا ہے تو اس کی امید کو مار ڈالیے اور اگر اسے تعمیر کرنا ہے اس کی امید کا دیا روشن کیجئے
  • کامیابی سوچ سے ملتی ہے
  • زندگی کی دوڑ میں دوسروں سے آگے نکلنے کیلئے تیز چلنا ضروری نہیں، بلکہ ہر رکاوٹ کے باوجود چلتے رہنا اور مسلسل چلتے رہنا ضروری ہے
  • جب باتیں آمنے سامنے ہوتی ہیں تو جھوٹ اور غلط فہممی کا خاتمہ ہو جاتا ھے
  • بہت اونچے پہاڑ پر چڑھنے کے لئیے قدم آہستہ آہستہ اٹھانا پڑتے ہیں
  • تین چیزیں نیکی کی بنیاد ہیں، تواضع بے توقع, سخاوت بے منت اور خدمت بے طلبِ مکافات
  • غربت اور افلاس کی وجہ پیداوار کی کمی نہیں، بلکہ اسکی غلط تقسیم ہے
  • دولت ہونے سے آدمی اپنے آپ کو بھول جاتا ہے اور دولت نہ ہونے سے لوگ اس کو بھول جاتے ہیں

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04 JANUARY 2018


Closing Note: KSE-100 witnesses 11th consecutive bullish trend, settles with a gain of 364.44 points
  • Bourse started the day positive and remained under the green zone throughout the trading session as it marked its end with a gain of 364.44ppts. The major reason behind the positive nature of the market was the ease in political climate and the support Pakistan got from China, Russia and Turkey in reply of Trump’s allegations which kept investor’s sentiments positive. The intra-day resistance and support level were 41,995.66 and 41,544.27 respectively. The scrips behind pulling the market up were UBL (+PKR 9.39) which contributed 85.03 points followed by HBL (+PKR 3.64), LUCK (+PKR 16.82), OGDC(+PKR 1.93) and SEARL (+PKR 15.91) which together contributed 147.5 points to the index.
  • Oil and gas exploration companies remained in the limelight throughout the session in which MARI closed with a gain of PKR +7.70 followed by OGDC (PKR+ 1.93) and PPL (PKR+ 1.20). There has been a hike in oil prices which could be attributed to unrest in Iran where crowds of protestors are criticizing the government for poor economic conditions.
  • MUGHAL gained PKR+ 1.91 and closed near to its upper cap as there was a material information regarding its extension of load from grid station (from 1.99MW to 59.99MW).
  • Market witnessed a volume of 222.27mn shares, decreased by 4.72% DoD with a value of PKR 8.5bn, down by 9% DoD. A total of 360 companies changed hands where 196 advanced, 140 declined and 24 remain unchanged.
  • On the sector front, power generation and distribution appeared as the top traded sector with volumes of 35.93mn shares, followed by technology & communication (28.83mn), cement (27.39mn), commercial banks (24.26mn) and chemical (20.52mn).
News & Corporate Announcements
  • Mughal steel notified PSX that extension of their load from grid station (from 19.99MW to 59.99MW). It is expected to be fully operational by 3QCY18.
  • After China and Russia ,Turkey, has also assured Pakistan of full support in the backdrop of the threatening tweet by the US President Donald Trump. Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan called the president of Pakistan Mamnoon Hussain and assured him of full support to Pakistan.
  • Oil sales dropped 11.4% to 1.87 million tons in December 2017, after the government closed a number of furnace oil-fired power plants as cheaper LNG and coal-based plants replaced the conventional method of electricity production.
  • The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor’s (CPEC) policy think tank, set up at a cost of Rs1.2 billion to fill policy gaps, is struggling to perform its core tasks even two years after its establishment due to misplaced priorities of the government.
  • China has welcomed Pakistan's move allowing the yuan to be used for imports, exports and financing transactions for bilateral trade and investment activities.
 

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05 JANUARY 2018


  • Market increased rapidly to reach a high of 676pts touching 42,585pts, fueled by Banks and Fertilizer Sector. Banks may have been a no brainer considering activity since last week of December and the interest-rate-uptick-story, but the spike in Fertilizer is backed by expectation of increase in Fertilizer Offtake. The rally in fertilizer which developed in past few sessions is likely to continue in the coming week.
  • The Index closed at 42,524pts as compared to 41,909pts, reflecting an increase of 615pts (1.5% DOD). Sectors contributing to this increase include Commercial Banks, Fertilizer and Cement that have topped Foreign Investors’ charts.
  • Volumes increased to 260mn shares as compared to 222.3mn shares yesterday, showing an increase of 17% DoD. Average traded value also increased by 11% DoD to reach US$ 85.8mn as compared to US$ 77.4mn.
  • Stocks that contributed significantly to the volumes include BOP, WTL, KEL, LOTCHEM and TRG contributing a total of 59mn shares, reflecting 23% share of total volumes.
  • Scrips that contributed positively include HBL (+62pts), UBL (+60pts), LUCK (+44pts), FFC (+43pts) and DAWH (+29pts). Stocks that contributed negatively include PPL (-12pts), POL (-10pts), MTL (-5pts), KEL (-5pts) and TRG (-5pts).
 

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05 JANUARY 2018


Daily Closing: KSE-100 index closes green, amid ease in political noise
  • Bourse started the day in a red zone but soon recovered staying all the day on a positive side. Ease in political noise and positivity amongst investor’s helped KSE-100 to settle with a notable gain of 615.28points and closed at 42,523.99 points. HBL appeared as top contributor in pulling the index up by 61.86 points during the day followed by UBL (60.13 pts), LUCK (43.88 pts), FFC (42.96 pts) and DAWH (28.97 pts). Market witnessed an upward trading activity with a volume of 260mn shares against volume of 222mn share in previous day, while value clocked in at PKR 9.5bn, up by 11.7% DoD. Out of 377 active scrips 270 closed in green, 85 in red and 22 remained intact.
  • BOP dominated today’s trading session with turnover of 18.05mn shares followed by WTL (11.93mn), KEL (11.51mn), LOTCHEM (9.29mn) and TRG (8.67mn). On sector front Commercial Banks emerged as top traded sector with turnover of 44.55mn shares, Technology and Communication (27.57mn), Cements (24.30mn), Chemicals (21.30mn) and Engineering (19.61mn).

Weekly Review: From worst to best performing market, PSX gains 2k points during the first week of the year
  • KSE100 witnessed consecutive 12th session of rise where benchmark index gained 4,604.57 points to stand at 42,523.99 points. Last year at the same time bourse was standing at 47,791.24 level which is 12% higher than current level. A gain of 2,052 points was observed in current week only where bourse marked intraday high and low of 42,584.96 and 41,821.85 points. The major reason behind the positive nature of the market was the ease in political climate and the support Pakistan got from China, Russia and Turkey in reply of Trump’s allegations which kept investor’s sentiments positive.
  • During the week banks outperformed where UBL gained PKR 25.42 followed by HBL (+PKR 16.88), MCB (+PKR 5.32) and BAHL (+PKR 4.62) owing to increase in inflation. Among the oil and marketing sector, HASCOL gained PKR 24.17 as the company attained the highest growth of 43% YoY in MS oil segment whereas APL/PSO surged PKR 34.47/5.28 as companies reported 2% /12% YoY increase in their MS oil segment. Shell, however declined by PKR 8.43 in its share value as company registered a decline of 3% YoY in the same segment.
  • MUGHAL gained PKR 5.13 (+9%) in its share value in last two days as company announced material information regarding its extension of load from grid station (from 1.99MW to 59.99MW).
  • During the week market floated between 42,584.79 to 40,169.14 points with an average traded volume and value of 213mn shares/PKR 8.5bn, respectively. Important news during the week were 1) SNGP announced that it has started working over a project to enhance pipeline capacity for the transmission of imported RLNG to a new general industry and commercial areas of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa., 2) PSMC increased retail prices of Mehran, Ravi and Bolan by Rs10,000 while customers will have to pay Rs20,000 more for Wagon R., 3) DSL notified PSX that it will comply with the deadline given to it by PSX for the start of its commercial operations., 4) Thar coal for power generation is expected to start supplying power to the national grid from next year and 5) The ground breaking ceremony of the construction of the ASL’s expansion plan took place.
  • In global front Oil prices witnessed bullish sentiments throughout the week. The hike could be attributable to unrest in Iran where crowds of protestors were criticizing the government for poor economic conditions. During the week MARI gained PKR 46.79 followed by POL (+PKR 16.56), PPL (+PKR 9.88) and OGDC (+PKR 7.05).
  • Among market participants’ foreigners remained net buyer during the week amounting to USD 22.96mn, primarily contributed by corporates amounting to USD 21.74mn. Whereas local investors remained net seller amounting to USD 22.96mn, mainly dragged by individuals (USD 13.17mn), and Insurance (USD 11.67mn). While Mutual funds and brokers remained net buyer with amount of USD 8.82/0.82mn respectively.
 

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08 January 2018


KSE-100 witnesses yet another bullish day, settling at 43,112.12points

  • Bourse has shown an exceptional rally since the start of the year ending its 13th consecutive positive session with a gain of 588.13points settling at 43,112.12points. This can be attributed to increased interest of foreigners and local investors taking advantage of undervalued scrips. Index floated between 42,523.99 to 43,256.57 points. Top scrips responsible for pushing the index up were HBL with a gain of PKR 6.21, followed by FFC (+PKR 4.22), UBL (+PKR 4.59), SNGP (+PKR 4.98) and MTL (+PKR 51.01) cumulatively adding 254.38points to the index.
  • The market witnessed a sound trading session, as 270.6mn shares were traded during the day with a value of PKR 11.56bn. Out of a total of 379 stocks, 276 advanced, 81 declined and 22 remained unchanged.
  • Fertilizers closed in the green zone where FFC gained PKR 4.22 in its share value followed by FFBL (+PKR 1.83), EFERT (+PKR 1.71) and FATIMA (+PKR 0.66) as the government is expected to announce a new fertilizer policy in one week’s time.
  • Banks remained in the limelight today as HBL increased by PKR 6.21, followed by UBL (+PKR 4.59), MCB (+PKR 2.37) and ABL (+PKR 1.53) owing to rising inflation in the economy.
  • SNGP and SSGC closed at their upper lock with a gain of PKR 4.98 and PKR 1.57 respectively as the government approved their financing plan of PKR 175bn for LNG III pipeline coupled with PM’s verdict to give allot 2mn new gas connections by end of June 2018. Following this, CSAP closed at its upper lock with a gain of PKR 6.63 as it is the only pipeline manufacturer (high dia) in Pakistan. MUGHAL closed yet another day at its upper lock with a gain of PKR 3.19 owing to the extension of existing grid station load from 20MW to 60MW which is expected to be operational by 1QFY19.
  • On the sector front, technology & communication appeared as the top traded sector with volumes of 50.66mn shares, followed by commercial banks (31.52mn), engineering (28.92mn), cement (20.10mn) and textile composite (19.31mn).
News & Corporate Announcements:
  • I.C.C Textile Limited announced its financial results for the year ended June 2017. The company saw a LPS of PKR 0.16 as compared to LPS of PKR 7.04 SPLY.
  • MFFL announced its financial results for the year ended September 2017 showing a LPS of PKR 3.92 as compared to LPS of PKR 1.54 in SPLY.
  • MG Link has received information that HCAR is set to increase prices of their City and Civic variants.
 

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  • KSE100 index gained another 588pts after Fridays 676pts jump that was backed by capital expenditure approved for RLNG-III project that will benefit SNGP, SSGC, CSAP etc. News regarding Fertilizer Policy on the cards also result in rally of Fertilizer sector stocks, which also helped other scrips gain traction.
  • The Index closed at 43,112pts as compared to 42,524pts on Friday, reflecting an increase of 588pts (+1.4% DoD). Commercial Banks and Fertilizer sectors led the growth in Index.
  • Volumes increased to 270mn shares as compared to 260mn shares Friday, showing an increase of 4% DoD. Average traded value also increased by 22% DoD to reach US$ 104.5mn as against US$ 86mn on Friday.
  • Stocks that contributed significantly to the volumes include WTL, ANL, ASL, TRG and BOP contributing a total of 59mn shares, reflecting 32% share of total volumes.
  • Scrips that contributed positively include HBL (+94pts), FFC (+61pts), UBL (+46pts), SNGP (+29pts) and MTL (+23pts). Stocks that contributed negatively include NESTLE (-14pts), PPL (-12pts), FCCL (-9pts), KAPCO (-9pts) and BATA (-4pts).
 

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09 JANUARY 2018

  • Market saw a correction of 298pts and at one point nose-dived by 546pts on account of technical correction. Other concerns to this decline came from Moodys note on PKR depreciation and turmoil in Balochistan Assembly that highlights trouble for the incumbent government.
  • KSE100 closed at 42,814pts as against 43,112pts yesterday, showing a decline of 298pts (-0.69% DoD). Sectors contributing to this decline include Commercial Banks (-155pts) , Oil & Gas E&P (-68pts) and Power (-40pts).
  • Volumes were registered at 225mn shares as compared with 270mn shares yesterday (-17% DoD). Average treaded value also declined by 16% DoD to US$ 88.2mn as compared with US$ 104.6mn yesterday.
  • Stocks that contributed significantly to the volumes include TRG, WTL, PAEL, SSGC and ANL contributing a total of 83mn shares, reflecting 37% share of total volumes.
  • Scrips that contributed positively include SNGP (+31pts), PSO (+22pts), FFC (+21pts), BAHL (+19pts) and NML (+16pts). Stocks that contributed negatively include HBL (-70pts), UBL (-47pts), OGDC (-24pts), PPL (-23pts) and HUBC (-21pts).
 

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Daily Closing: KSE-100 drops by 297.78 points after 13 consecutive bullish trends
  • Bourse has shown an exceptional rally since past 13 days rising by a total of 5,193 points, however, today bourse took a few steps back and ended up falling by 297.78 points and closed at 42,814.34 points. This can be mainly attributed to correction in the market and political uncertainty as political leader Tahir-ul-Qadri threatens to start protests from 17th of January if PML-N refuses to comply with his demands coupled with a demand of resignation from Chief Minister of Baluchistan. Index floated between 42,599.51 to 43,251.40 points. HBL, UBL, OGDC, PPL and HUBCO were responsible for pulling the scrip down by a total of 183.62 points in todays trading session.
  • Oil and gas marketing companies outshined throughout the session as APL closed with a gain of PKR +6.20 followed by PSO (PKR +6.90) and SHEL (PKR +15.37).
  • Scrip wise, SNGP for a second consecutive day closed at its upper lock with a gain of PKR 6.96 and SSGC gained PKR 0.97 respectively as the government approved their financing plan of PKR 175bn for LNG III pipeline coupled with PM’s verdict to allot 2mn new gas connections by the end of June 2018. Following this, CSAP closed at its upper lock for the consecutive second day gaining a total of ~PKR 13 as it is the only pipeline manufacturer (high dia) in Pakistan. FFBL and FFC both gained PKR 1.01 and PKR 1.42 as Govt mulls a new fertilizer policy which is likely to benefit both industry and farmers.
  • Market witnessed a volume of 225.2mn shares as compared to the previous session of 270.6mn shares, decreased by 16.7% DoD with a value of PKR 9.7bn, down by 16% DoD. A total of 366 companies changed hands where 131 advanced, 213 declined and 22 remain unchanged.
  • On the sector front, technology & communication appeared as the top traded sector with volumes of 44.94mn shares, followed by cable and electrical goods (17.70mn), OMC’s (17.30mn), commercial banks (16.47mn) and textile composite (15.09mn).
News & Corporate Announcements:
  • Attock Cement Pakistan Limited (ACPL) notified PSX about the commencement of their new production line located at Hub, Balochistan, which has started its operations . This line cement has production capacity of 4000 tons per day (1.2 mn tons per annum)
  • Balochistan Chief Minister Nawab Sanaullah Zehri is expected to resign from his post on Prime Minister Shahid Khaqan Abbasi's advice after he remained unable to contain a mushrooming political crisis in the province.
  • Pakistan did not receive the $1.4 billion worth of aid that various countries have promised to reduce poverty, improve social services in the tribal areas and bring in reforms in the education and health sectors.
  • Pakistan’s exports could grow at a faster pace than the 11% increase they have registered so far, a development that would come on the back of the rupee losing value against the US dollar.
  • Defying the currently strained relations between the United States and Pakistan governments, more than one dozen American start-ups and business greats are coming to Pakistan next month.
 

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  • Index took a surprise jump of 845pts that motivated investors far and wide to actively invest in scrips of their choice. Activity was again seen in Commercial Banks, which took some correction yesterday. Volumes also showed the same buoyancy and after a long time surpassed 300mn mark.
  • KSE100 closed at 43,630pts as against 42,814pts yesterday, showing an increase of 816pts (+1.9% DoD). Key sectors contributing to this upsurge were Commercial Banks (+227pts) and Fertilizer (+105pts), although Cement and Oil & Gas also contributed to the increase.
  • Volumes were registered at 328mn shares as compared with 225mn shares yesterday (+46% DoD). Average traded value also increased by 60% to reach US$ 140mn as compared with US$ 88mn yesterday.
  • Stocks that contributed significantly to the volumes include ASL, TRG, DCL, ANL and BOP, reflecting 24% of total volumes.
  • Scrips that contributed positively include HBL (+70pts), ENGRO (+52pts), UBL (+48pts), MCB (+42pts) and LUCK (+36pts). Stocks that contributed negatively include NML (-3pts), MUREB (-1pts), NATF (-1pts), ABOT (-1pts) and SCBPL (-1pts).
 

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  • KSE100 index saw minor correction of 235pts amidst high volumes, which give confidence that Investors’ interest is intact. SSGC and KEL became the highlight, where SSGC traded at upper circuit and KEL traded on the back of speculation in terms of MYT to be approved by NEPRA. Couple of interesting trades made today include ASL, which went up with high volume consecutively but closed in red. FCCL also came back from the decline witnessed in past few sessions and is treading towards higher levels on the back of capacity expansion.
  • The Index closed at 43,395pts as against 43,630pts yesterday showing a decline of 235pts (-0.54% DoD). Sectors contributing to this performance include Fertilizer (-79pts), E&P (-57pts), Commercial Banks (-46pts) and Power Sector (-46pts).
  • Volumes were registered at 319mn shares as compared with 328mn shares yesterday (-2.5% DoD). Average traded value also declined by 12% to reach US$ 124mn as against US$ 140mn yesterday.
  • Stocks that contributed significantly to the volumes include WTL, SSGC, KEL, FCCL and PAEL reflecting 29% of total volumes.
  • Scrips that contributed positively include HBL (+20pts), SNGP (+16pts), TRG (+15pts), INIL (+11pts) and SSGC (+10pts). Stocks that contributed negatively include BAHL (-34pts), HUBUC (-33pts), ENGRO (-30pts), FFC (-24pts) and OGDC (-21pts).
 

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Day End Remarks: Political uncertainty and profit-taking drags KSE-100 down, closed at 42,933.72points

  • Bourse started the day on a positive note but investor’s sentiment remained negative which drove the market in the red zone. The major reasons which attributed to the negative trend are Tahir Ul Qadri’s sit-in date and correction in the market after consecutive increase. The intra-day resistance and support level were 43,436.20 and 42,740.30 respectively. The oil and gas exploration companies remained in the limelight throughout the day amid hike in the global oil prices. PSO appeared as top laggard in pushing the index down by 37.09 points during the day followed by DGKC (35.42 pts), OGDC (32.01 points), ENGRO (29.42pts) and UBL (24.6 pts). Market witnessed trading activity with volume of 238.67mn shares against volume of 319.2mn share in previous day, while value clocked in at PKR 10.3bn, down by 25% DoD. Out of 359 active scrips, 84 closed in green, 262 in red and 13 remained intact.
  • TRG dominated today’s trading session with turnover of 26.02mn shares followed by WTL (15.22mn), ANL (14.11mn), SSGC (11.15mn) and LOTCHEM (8.43mn). On sector front Technology and Communication outshined as top traded sector with turnover of 50.06mn shares, Engineering (22.78mn), Cements (21.53mn), Textile Composite (18.81mn) and Commercial Banks (18.04mn).
Weekly Review: KSE100 ends the week negative amid uncertainty
  • The bourse started the week with bullish sentiments influenced majorly by increased interest of foreigners and local investors who took advantage of undervalued scrips. However, correction in the market was witnessed later amid political uncertainty as political leader Tahir-ul-Qadri threatened to start protests from 17th of January if PML-N refuses to comply with his demands. Moreover, after the unfortunate incident in Kasur, protests and oppositions pressure demanding Rana Sanaullah to give his resignation caused great turmoil in the political front. In total bourse saw volatile trading week, where benchmark index observed 3 bearish and 2 bullish trading session. During the week bourse gained 409.73 points and floated between 42,523.99 to 43,824.29 points with an average traded volume and value of 276mn shares/PKR 12.1bn, respectively.
  • Important news during the week were 1) World Bank’s forecasted GDP of 5.5% for Pakistan, 2) MUGHAL announced the extension of existing grid station load from 20MW to 60MW which is expected to be operational by 1QFY19, 3) Azgard Nine (ANL) notified PSX that their company has entered into a rental agreement with Irfan Textiles for rental property of Irfan Textiles, 4) Auto sales in the country charged on in December, as total car sales jumped to 103,432 units in July-Dec 2017 as compared to 85,901 units in same period last year and 5) Tariq Glass (TGL) notified PSX that their company has successfully managed the completion of its new state of the art Opal Glass dinnerware project with a capacity of 35 tons per day.
  • SNGP and SSGC gained PKR 13.61 and PKR 0.54 during the week as government approved their financing plan of PKR 175bn for LNG III pipeline coupled with PM’s verdict to give allot 2mn new gas connections by the end of June 2018. Following this, CSAP/INIL/HSPI gained PKR 18/14.49/0.97 anticipating the demand for pipe for LNG terminal. KEL lost PKR 0.08 (-1%) in its value in the last two days as NEPRA seems unlikely to revise Karachi Electric MYT upward on the reconsideration request forwarded by the ministry of energy. On the flip side, MTL gained PKR 66.08 (6%) in its share value as company reported 20% increase in its sales MoM. During the week oil surged above USD 70 where for the first time since 2014 as investors bet supply cuts led by OPEC will dominate the market.
  • Among market participants’ foreigners remained net buyer during the week amounting to USD 26.41mn, primarily dragged by corporates amounting to USD 22.40mn. Whereas local investors remained net seller amounting to USD 26.41mn, mainly contributed by banks (USD 18.48mn), others (USD 7.78mn) and companies (USD 7.47mn). While individuals and brokers remained net buyer with amount of USD 11.41/2.02mn respectively.
 

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Weekly Update
Market Review Equities
Green > Red


Market Commentary

The KSE-100 Index gained 410 points or 0.96% from 42,524 last week to 42,934 points this week. The local bourse remained strong despite tension building between Pakistan and US. Though, Tahir ul Qadri’s announcement of countrywide protest against the ruling party from 17th Jan did disturb the momentum of the market during the week. Still, attractive valuations and positive sentiment amongst investors kept the market within the 42k - 43k range.

During the week positive contribution to the market came from Commercial Banks (+178pts), OMCs (+137pts), Fertilizer (+87), Engineering (+41) and Technology & Communication (+34pts). Stocks that remained positive include HBL (+136pts), SNGP (+110pts), FFC (+86pts), MCB (+53pts) and TRG (+37pts).

Foreign investors purchased stocks worth USD 26mn this week compared to net buying of USD 23mn last week. Major buying was witnessed in Commercial Banks (USD 7.4mn), Cement (USD 5.8mn) and Power Generation & Distribution (USD 3.8mn). On the local front Banks/ DFIs led the bearish sentiments resorting to selling of USD 18.5mn followed by other Organizations (USD 7.8mn) and Companies (USD 7.5mn). Meanwhile, average dailyvolumes increased by 29.8% to 213mn shares tagged with average daily value which went up by 43.8% to USD 110mn.

Other major news: (i) Honda increased prices of cars, (ii) SBP lifts ceiling on dollar imports, (iii) Nepra unlikely to revise KE's MYT upward, (iv) PKR 175bn financing approved for third LNG pipeline, and (v) GST, duty on imported cotton withdrawn.

Outlook and Recommendation

In the coming week market is expected to remain range bound since Tahir ul Qadri’s country wide protest will take off on Wednesday. Whereas international oil prices will dictate the trajectory of E&P scrips. The KSE-100 index is currently trading at a cheaper PER of 9.1x (2018) compared to Asia Pac regional average of 13.8x and while offering DY of ~5.1% versus ~2.5% offered by the region.
 

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  • Market took a negative turn today, influenced by a host of factors including political disturbance, profit taking, concerns regarding redemptions from Mutual Funds and issues resurfacing pertinent to macro-economic indicators. ISL for one seemed to follow the rule ‘buy on rumour’ and ‘sell on news’ and investors were seen profit taking on the news of receiving Cold Rolling Mill. SSGC also nose-dived on the pre-text of profit taking. All the key sectors were down, taking the index by -640pts at one time.
  • The Index closed at 42,934pts as against 43,395pts yesterday, reflecting a decline of 461pts (-1% DoD). Sectors contributing to this decline include Cement (-81pts), Fertilizer (-56pts), Oil & Gas Sector (-95pts) and Steel (-39pts).
  • Volumes went down to 239mn shares as against 319mn shares yesterday (-25% DoD). Average traded value also declined by 25% DoD to reach US$ 93mn as against US$ 123mn yesterday.
  • Stocks that contributed significantly to the volumes include TRG, WTL, ANL, SSGC and LOTCHEM reflecting 31% of total volumes.
  • Scrips that contributed positively include HBL (+21pts), COLG (+13pts), POL (+10pts), PIBTL (+5pts) and FFC (+4pts). Stocks that contributed negatively include PSO (-37pts), DGKC (-35pts), OGDC (-32pts), ENGRO (-29pts) and UBL (-25pts).
 

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ABA ALI HABIB RESEARCH
15 JANUARY 2018


Daily Closing: KSE-100 loses its positive momentum as political storm erupts, settle with a loss of 586.23points

Bourse followed a negative trend throughout the trading session where it shed 586.23ppts to settle at 42,347.49ppts. The reason for this is attributed to the noisy political scenario that has fueled China to put a hold on further investments under CPEC till elections. Index fluctuated between the range of 42,2270.38ppts and 42,933.72ppts. The top scrips that dragged the index down were HBL (-PKR 4.35), UBL (-PKR 4.92), FFC (-PKR 3.01), POL (-PKR 19.03) and PPL (-PKR 3.23) cumulatively losing 234.06ppts.

Banks remained in the red zone as weekly inflation figures declined and there has been a general market consensus that there will be no interest rate hike. UBL lost PKR 4.92 in its share price followed by HBL (-PKR 4.35), MCB (-PKR 2.46), MEBL (-PKR 1.76) and FABL (-PKR 0.79).

PIAA remained the most attractive scrip today closing at its upper lock with a gain of PKR 1.00 in its share value due to the news of the government trying to sell PIA before elections and Emirates and Eithad Airways showing interest in the stake.
Although the index suffered bearish sentiments, MCSI scrips sustained their previous closing rates where EGRO gained PKR 1.94, LUCK gained PKR 1.34 and OGDC gained PKR 0.63 in its share price.

Market witnessed a volume of 130.47mn shares as compared to previous session which was 238.67mn shares, decreased by 45% DoD with a value of PKR 5.8bn, down by 43% DoD. A total of 344 companies changed hands where 101 advanced, 231 declined and 12 remain unchanged.

On the sector front, textile composite appeared as the top traded sector with volumes of 21.39mn shares, followed by technology & communication (12.68mn), engineering (11.84mn), cement (10.05mn) and commercial banks (8.71mn).

News & Corporate Announcements:
  • PACE Pakistan has requested PSX to restore the trading of shares of the company. PACE has assured PSX that the company will settle its liabilities towards Askari Bank before 31st Jan'18 which will enable the bank to withdraw all litigation cases including winding up petition.
  • International Urea prices has increased by 13% WoW from USD 225 to USD 255.
  • MATCO Foods (MFL) will start its bidding from 23rd Jan’18 to 24th Jan’18 in between 9am-5pm. General public subscription is from 29th Jan’18 to 30th Jan’18. The floor price of the MFL is PKR 26.
  • Amreli Steels (ASTL) disclosed in their quarterly progress report that company has announced the hot commissioning of the plant (expansion Dhabeji Melting: 200k and re-rolling: 300k) in the second week of Feb'18 due to which the commercial operation date will be in the last week of March (revised from last week of feb'18).
  • MUGHAL disclosed its quarterly progress report i.e. balancing, modernization and replacement of existing bar rerolling mill is expected to be completed in 4QFY18. Procurement and installation of six (6) engines (gas fired electric generators) of 3.1 MW gross capacity each is expected to be completed in 4QFY18.
  • Sindh High Court's (SHC) two-member bench, today, lashed out at the provincial government for not doing enough to resolve the stand-off over sugarcane price between the crop's growers and sugar mill owners.
 

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AHL RESEARCH
15 JANUARY 2018


  • KSE100 index declined again by almost 600pts at one time. Political noise is believed to be the cause of concern. Pakistan Awami Tehreek (PAT) and opposition countries are scheduled to protest and sit-in on January 17th, which has likely caused turmoil in the market. Investors looked reluctant to invest in blue chips.
  • The Index closed at 42,347pts as against 42,934pts on Friday, reflecting a decline of 586pts (-1.4% DoD). Sectors contributing to this decline include Commercial Banks (-150pts), Oil & Gas E&P (-74pts) and Fertilizer (-51pts).
  • Volumes declined drastically from 239mn shares on Friday to 130mn shares today (-45% DoD). Average traded value also declined by 44% DoD to reach US$ 52.4mn as compared with US$ 93mn on Friday.
  • Stocks that contributed significantly to the volumes include ANL, TRG, PIAA, PAEL and ASL reflecting 34% of total volumes.
  • Scrips that contributed positively include ENGRO (+12pts), OGDC (+8pts), DAWH (+6pts), ABL (+6pts) and BAHL (+6pts). Stocks that contributed negatively include HBL (-66pts), UBL (-50pts), FFC (-44pts), POL (-43pts) and PPL (-32pts).
 

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16 JANUARY 2018


  • Market made a another wild swing today and resembled the activity taking place since past week, where it is either very positive one day and turns completely negative the other day. Confirmation of keeping the protest / sit-in restricted to 1 day, raised optimism among investors who took turns investing across the board. Tomorrow, being the d-day for opposition parties and government will determine if market should keep the upward trend or this one-day protest turns into nation-wide chaos.
  • KSE100 Index closed at 42,940pts as against 42,347pts yesterday, reflecting an increase of 592pts (+1.4% DoD). Sectors contributing to this increase include Commercial Banks (+180pts), Oil & Gas E&P (+124pts) and Cement (+86pts).
  • Volumes increased by 30mn shares to cross 160mn shares as against 130.5mn shares yesterday (+23% DoD). Average traded value also increased 24% DoD to reach US$ 65.3 mn as against US$ 52.6 mn yesterday.
  • Stocks that contributed significantly to the volumes include PIAA, FABL, DCL, TRG and WTL reflecting 32% of total volumes.
  • Scrips that contributed positively include HBL (+113pts), LUCK (+53pts), OGDC (+50pts), HUBC (+40pts) and MCB (+38pts). Stocks that contributed negatively include NESTLE (-19pts), SNGP (-6pts), BAHL (-5pts), KEL (-5pts) and DAWH (-4pts).
 

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16 JANUARY 2018


Daily Closing: KSE-100 shoots up 592ppts as investors take interest in the under-valued market
  • Bourse enjoyed bullish sentiments as political noise eased out and investors showed interest in the discounted index as market gained 592.19ppts to settle at 42,939.68ppts. Index marked its high and low level at 43,142.59 and 42,324.27ppts. The major contributors were HBL (+PKR 7.03), LUCK (+PKR 19.88), OGDC (+PKR 4.00), HUBC (+PKR 1.98) and MCB (+PKR 3.43) which cumulatively added 293.34ppts.
  • International oil prices continued to surge and crossed the $70 per barrel psychological barrier. Therefore, E&P closed in the green zone where POL increased PKR 15.53 in its share price followed by MARI (+PKR 12.41), OGDC (+PKR 4.00) and PPL (+PKR 2.81).
  • Major textile scrips showed a positive trend as the Euro hits a 3 year high. BHAT gained PKR 41.97 in its share value followed by SFL (+PKR 37.50), MSOT (+PKR 2.39) and KML (+PKR 1.69).
  • PIAA outshined (+PKR 0.37) as the top traded stock with a turnover of 15.75mn shares being traded after the news of Etihad or Emirates buying a stake in the airline came into play.
  • Market witnessed a volume of 160.86mn shares as compared to 130.47mn shares in the previous session, increased by 23% DoD with a value of PKR 7.2bn, up by 24% DoD. A total of 355 companies changed hands where 215 advanced, 121 declined and 19 remain unchanged.
  • On the sector front, cement outshined as the top traded sector with volumes of 22.87mn shares, followed by commercial banks (20.0mn), transport (16.84mn), technology & communication (15.97mn) and engineering (13.62mn).
News & Corporate Announcements:
  • Talking to reporters in Brussels, the United States' (US) Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Gen Joseph Dunford insisted that he had not given up hope on the US mending relations with Pakistan, Radio Pakistan reported Today.
  • A larger bench of the Lahore High Court (LHC), today, decided to take up a petition against the Pakistan Awami Tehreek's (PAT) upcoming protest against the PML-N government, set to begin on January 17.
  • Political party leaders and religious scholars called for unity and a unanimous narrative to counter terrorism in Pakistan at a ceremony announcing the 'Paigham-i-Pakistan' fatwa in Islamabad today.
  • The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) has signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) on bilateral central banking cooperation with the Central Bank of the Russian Federation (CBRF), a press release yesterday.
 

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17 JANUARY 2018


Daily Closing: KSE-100 gains strength as LHC orders to wind-up ‘Jalsa’ within 24hours, settled with a gain of 419points
  • Bourse’s start of the day was negative where it declined 64.29ppts to close at 43,358.97 points. Market witnessed the head and shoulder patterns in the first half, however later investors showed faith in the market and drove the bourse towards the greener side. The main reason of this gain could to be attributed to the verdict of LHC to end today’s protest of Mall road within 24 hours. Furthermore, there’s been a hike in the international oil prices which kept the oil exploration companies in demand. The resistance and support level were 43,386 and 42,874 points respectively. The major contributors in pulling the market up were HBL (PKR +2.84) followed by SEARL (PKR +15.81),PPL (PKR +2.14),BAHL (PKR +1.39) and NML(PKR +5.49) which cumulatively added 127.77points.
  • Sector wise the oil and exploration companies have been in the green zone as international oil prices continued to surge and crossed the $70 per barrel psychological barrier. Scrip wise PPL (PKR +2.14), MARI (PKR + 1.75), POL (+PKR 6.04) and OGDC (+PKR 0.19).
  • Textile composites also outshined the market as PM Abbasi announced that the government plans on unveiling a new exports package which includes reduction in the electricity and gas tariffs and other incentives. BHAT gained PKR 41.93 and NML gained PKR 5.32 in their share values.
  • As international scrap prices went down by $10, MUGHAL took the quick impact and was on upper lock with a gain of PKR 3.33.
  • Market witnessed a volume of 151.3mn shares as compared to previous session which was 160.8mn shares, decreased by 5.9% DoD with a value of PKR 6.6bn, down by 11% DoD. A total of 375 companies changed hands where 238 advanced, 114 declined and 23 remain unchanged.
  • On the sector front, commercial banks appeared as the top traded sector with volumes of 17.65mn shares, followed by textile composite (16.02mn), cement (14.89mn), engineering (14.41mn) and miscellaneous (12.06mn).
News & Corporate Announcements:
  • The Lahore High Court (LHC), today, allowed Pakistan Awami Tehreek (PAT) to go ahead with its sit-in on Lahore's Mall Road today, but with certain conditions including ending the sit-in by midnight.
  • Pakistan’s pharmaceutical manufacturers are losing their export markets to the Indian industry and this lack of competitive advantage is blamed on the government’s indifference to the toll manufacturing arrangement.
  • Rejecting the politics of the sit-ins and protests , the business community has called upon the government as well as political parties to adopt a reconciliatory approach and settle political disputes through dialogue so that a consistent stability could be prevailed in the country to ensure high economic growth.
 

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17 JANUARY 2018

  • After an initial jitter caused by protest / sit-in, KSE100 index held positive ground rest of the day and with the hope of coalition against government started dissipating, the bulls came raging in and raised the index level. In the coming days, market is expected to continue its positive drive and those who divested last week are expected to come back that can take the market to recent days’ high.
  • The Index closed at 42,940pts as against 43,359pts yesterday, showing an increase of 419pts (+1% DoD). Sectors contributing to this increase include Commercial Banks (+113pts), Cement (+46pts), Fertilizer (+41pts) and Oil & gas sector (+69pts).
  • Volumes declined slightly from 160.8mn yesterday to 151.3mn shares today, reflecting a decline of 6% DoD. Average traded value declined by 8% DoD to reach US$ 60mn from US$ 65.2mn yesterday.
  • Stocks that contributed significantly to the volumes include PACE, ANL, LOTCHEM, KEL and FABL reflecting 27% of total volumes.
  • Scrips that contributed positively include HBL (+43pts), SEARL (+24pts), PPL (+21pts), BAHL (+21pts) and NML (+18pts). Stocks that contributed negatively include KTML (-5pts), KEL (-3pts), ABOT (-2pts), SNBL (-1pts) and PGF (-1pts).
 

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ABA ALI HABIB RESEARCH
18 JANUARY 2018


Daily Closing: KSE-100 gains strength as political dust settles down, closes with a gain of 221.91ppts
  • Bourse sky-rocketed 645.46ppts as the trading session began marking an intra-day high of 44,004.13ppts. However, the bourse took a U-turn as Imran Khan claimed “explosive revelations in today’s press conference” which led to a decline of 798ppts wiping off intra-day gains as people perceived resignation of the major political party from the parliament. Recovery was witnessed thereafter with a gain of 221.91 points as no such decision was announced. The resistance and support level were 44,004.13 and 43192.75ppts respectively. The major contributors in pulling the market up were ENGRO (PKR +8.10) followed by HBL (PKR +2.75), KTML (PKR +3.10), MCB (PKR +1.64) and HUBC (PKR +0.97) which cumulatively added 132.98ppts.
  • Sector wise, pharmaceutical companies remained in the limelight throughout the day as PM announced the package for industrial refunds. The main scrips were WYETH with a gain of PKR 25.16 followed by GSKCH (PKR +11.58) and SAPL (PKR +70.45).
  • MUGHAL once again closed at its upper lock with a gain of PKR 3.50 as there has been a decrease in the international scrap prices by $10.
  • Market witnessed a volume of 268.45mn shares as compared to previous session which was 151.3mn shares, increase by 77.4% DoD with a value of PKR 13.6bn, up by 1.06x DoD. A total of 374 companies changed hands where 217 advanced, 148 declined and 9 remain unchanged.
  • On the sector front, technology and communication outshined as the top traded sector with volumes of 31.72mn shares, followed by cement (29.82mn), chemical (26.02mn), commercial banks (25.63mn) and engineering (23.56mn).
News & Corporate Announcements:
  • Prime Minister Shahid Khaqan Abbasi announced on Wednesday the government’s intentions to offer an amnesty scheme for Pakistanis to declare their foreign assets, and reduce tax rates to broaden the tax base and address challenges on the external and fiscal fronts, ahead of next year’s budget and the upcoming general elections.
  • Maple Leaf Cement (MLCF) informed PSX that the LHC has passed the order to the effect that the EIA filed by MLCF has been approved by and the order passed by EPA to stop construction work at new line-3 has been set aside.
  • Khairpur Sugar Mills Limited disclosed their financial results for the year ended Sept’17. The LPS is clocked in at PKR 5.84 as compared to the EPS of 3.54, SPLY. The loss can be attributed to the decrease in the topline of the company by 29% YoY.
  • ICC Textile Limited (ICCT) disclosed their financial results for the 1st quarter ended Sept’17. The LPS of company is clocked in at PKR 0.80 as against LPS of PKR 0.95. The major reason behind the decline in LPS could be attributed to the decline in the distribution costs by 64.25% QoQ.
 

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18 JANUARY 2018


  • Today twitter showed its might on the stock market, when at one time the Index rallied by 645pts and after PTI Chairman’s tweet regarding announcing some explosive news (connoting dissolution of KPK assembly or mass resignations), the index saw erosion of some 800pts, dipping down by 166pts. The initial positive sentiment was the outcome of flop show staged by government opposing coalition parties that was destined to topple the government in few days. However, dissent and disagreements among the political parties gave the bulls confidence that the government will not be at harm and nothing substantial can take form against the incumbents. Still, the fate is still hanging in balance, considering that the Senate Elections are in play and opposing parties have a month to try and call it off and instead call early General Elections.
  • The Index closed at 43,580pts as against 43,359pts yesterday, showing an increase of 222pts (0.5% DoD). Sectors contributing to today’s mix performance include Fertilizer (+53pts), Commercial Banks (+48pts), Cement (+40pts), O&GMCs (+21pts) and Refinery (-18pts).
  • Volumes declined bounced back from 151.4mn shares yesterday to 268.5mn shares today (+77% DoD). Average traded value also doubled from US$ 60mn yesterday to US$ 124mn today (+106% DoD).
  • Stocks that contributed significantly to the volumes include TRG, LOTCHEM, ANL, DCL and SSGC reflecting 26% of total volumes.
  • Scrips that contributed positively include ENGRO (+48pts), HBL (+42pts), KTML (+14pts), MCB (+14pts) and HUBC (+14pts). Stocks that contributed negatively include NML (-13pts), NRL (-12pts), DAWH (-9pts), ATRL (-6pts) and BAHL (-5pts).
 

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